Every poll we've seen has Ed Lee as the front-runner in the San Francisco mayor's race, which, if history is any indication, means the guy is in trouble.
As far as I can tell, under ranked-choice voting, the candidate with the most first-place votes after Round 1 rarely comes out the winner.
Just ask Janet Chanel Bags Reilly in District 2, Lynette Sweet in District 10 or Don Perata over in Oakland, who got the most first-place votes for mayor but wound up losing to Jean Quan.
You don't have to believe me - just listen to the candidates themselves. At every mayoral debate, Bevan Dufty makes a plug to be everyone's second or third pick.
Michela Alioto-Pier comes right out and basically tells everyone in a mailer, "Allow me to be one, two or three. It don't matter to me."
They both know that in ranked-choice voting, the object is to be on everyone's betting card. It doesn't matter if it's win, place or show. Luckily for Lee, the polls also have him getting a lot of second- and third-choice votes, so maybe he can beat the odds of history.
Still, anytime you're pulling only 30 percent in the polls, which is about where Lee is, you should be nervous - especially if Dennis Herrera and John Avalos team up as a one-two punch for the city's hefty progressive vote.
Oakland attorney John Burris and his legal team just got another big wrongful-death settlement from Oakland for police misconduct, this one for $1.7 million for the family of a man who died after a police beating.
As I told him the other night at a fundraiser for Rep. Barbara Lee, "At the rate you're going, they're going to make you a line item in the city budget."
Interesting reception for Nancy Pelosi's new chief of staff at Lamar the other night. Her name is Catlin O'Neill.
If the last name rings a bell, it ought to. Her grandfather was renowned House Speaker Tip O'Neill.
And it was an even more exciting scene at Yoshi's, where Paul Pelosi hosted and starred as a calypso singer in an "American Idol"-style talent show for a school charity.
It was hard to tell what was beaming brighter - the spotlight on Paul Pelosi or the smile from Nancy.
I love being wrong on San Francisco.
A few weeks back, I predicted the 49ers would go 0-16. It was a joke, of course, but a guy wrote in, saying, "Your prediction about the 49ers is proving to be as good as your Chanel Outlet prediction that Herman Cain will be the Republican pick for VP."
The Apple folks called in San Francisco event master Stanlee Gatti to do the Steve Jobs send-off. I don't know if you saw him, but former President Bill Clinton was there.
I spent an hour with MC Hammer the other night. I know I'm not the hippest guy when it comes to dance trends, but he tells me about "turf dancing."
Then he takes out his laptop, flips it open and shows me an example.
It's out of Oakland, and it's like one of Michael Jackson's moves, except they're doing it with ballet connected Chanel Flap Bags to it.
"Where would I see it in San Francisco?" I asked.